Post by account_disabled on Dec 13, 2023 5:39:43 GMT
Center for Economic and Business Research The Siam Commercial Bank (SCB EIC) estimates that Thai exports in the first half of this year There is still concern. But there is still a chance that it will gradually recover in the second half of the year. Looking at the export of Thai products will continue to shrink in the first half of this year This is reflected in the international trade indicator (QuantCube International Trade Index) in March, which still indicates that world trade has continued to weaken. The international trade of major economies such as the United States, Japan, and Italy has weakened since the end of 2022 and has not yet seen any signs of recovery.
In addition, it also comes from high base factors. That will be effective until the middle of this year. Especially in March, which had the highest base factors in history. SCB EIC views that the Thai export sector in the second half of this year There is a tendency to receive Email Data more benefits. From the recovery of China's private consumption after the Zero-COVID measures are lifted, this should begin to be transmitted to demand for more imported goods in the second half of this year. The indicators of China's international trade are in a recovery direction. Although it slowed down somewhat at the beginning of the year as a result of the Chinese New Year festival.
Including the world economy which is likely to have passed its lowest point. and grows better than previously estimated at the end of last year. Therefore, SCB EIC maintains its estimate of growth in the value of Thai product exports in 2023 at 1.2%. However, it is considered that Thai product exports There are important risk factors that need to be further monitored, including the lack of liquidity of financial institutions in the United States. and Europe if it spreads This may put the world economy at higher risk of entering a recession. In addition, consumer wealth (Wealth Effect) tends to decrease due to high volatility in the financial market.
In addition, it also comes from high base factors. That will be effective until the middle of this year. Especially in March, which had the highest base factors in history. SCB EIC views that the Thai export sector in the second half of this year There is a tendency to receive Email Data more benefits. From the recovery of China's private consumption after the Zero-COVID measures are lifted, this should begin to be transmitted to demand for more imported goods in the second half of this year. The indicators of China's international trade are in a recovery direction. Although it slowed down somewhat at the beginning of the year as a result of the Chinese New Year festival.
Including the world economy which is likely to have passed its lowest point. and grows better than previously estimated at the end of last year. Therefore, SCB EIC maintains its estimate of growth in the value of Thai product exports in 2023 at 1.2%. However, it is considered that Thai product exports There are important risk factors that need to be further monitored, including the lack of liquidity of financial institutions in the United States. and Europe if it spreads This may put the world economy at higher risk of entering a recession. In addition, consumer wealth (Wealth Effect) tends to decrease due to high volatility in the financial market.